Real-time tracking of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and spread
Richard Neher
Biozentrum & SIB, University of Basel
slides at neherlab.org/202010_KNAW_CoV.html
BBC
Data summarized by Ian MacKay
Data summarized by Ian MacKay
Data summarized by Ian MacKay
Data summarized by Ian MacKay
Data summarized by Ian MacKay
by Trevor Bedford
by Trevor Bedford
Tracking diversity and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Nextstrain
Available data on Jan 26
Early genomes differed by only a few mutations, suggesting very recent emergence
→ the closest to "real-time" we have experienced so far...
Figure by James Hadfield/Emma Hodcroft
Mutations accumulate constantly, but most of them are irrelevant and rare.
The genome accumulates about two mutations a month...
Diversified into multiple global variants. Groups 20A/B/C have taken over.
Genomic analysis as complement to contact tracing
Swiss sequences on August 31
A European cluster in summer 2020
What's next?
Seasonal incidence of influenza viruses
2009 pandemic influenza -- US
2009 pandemic influenza -- UK
2009 pandemic influenza -- Germany
by Trevor Bedford
Human corona viruses have pronounced seasonal prevalence (Sweden)
- Most respiratory virus including established CoVs show seasonality
- Little direct evidence; absolute effect of seasonality unknown
- But expect control of the virus to be harder in winter
Potential transition to an endemic seasonal virus
Acknowledgments
Trevor Bedford and his lab -- terrific collaboration since 2014
especially James Hadfield, Emma Hodcroft, Ivan Aksamentov, Moira Zuber, and Tom Sibley
Data we analyze are contributed by scientists from all over the world
Data are shared and curated by GISAID
