"Predicting seasonal influenza strains of the next season"


Richard Neher
Biozentrum & SIB, University of Basel


slides at neherlab.org/202610_CEPI_Istanbul.html

Using historical patterns to interpret current diversity

  • Known epitopes and signatures sites near the RBD
  • "Mutational load" that reduces the fitness of a strain

TODO: Predicting variant fitness and antigenic evolution

  • TODO: mutation fitness effects (deep mutational scanning, Bloom lab collaboration)
  • TODO: growth advantage estimates, forecasting clade frequencies

TODO: From prediction to action

  • TODO: vaccine strain selection, countermeasure design
  • TODO: limits of predictability

TODO: Outlook / take-home messages

  • TODO